5g drives the high-frequency and high-speed copper clad plate to grow rapidly, and the copper foil enjoys the development dividend

   

 

Three barriers of high frequency and high speed copper clad laminate determine the market pattern:

1. 1. The technology is complex and the industry threshold is high;
2. 2. The certification cycle of material link and processing link is long, there are many steps, and the threshold is obvious;
3. 3. Downstream demand is diverse, and customized PCB assembly demand determines the threshold of proprietary formula.

 

The threshold determines China's market pattern: the traditional PCB factory and PCB board manufaturer has excess production and the capacity of high-frequency high-speed copper clad laminate is insufficient, which still needs a large number of imports. Rogers and Panasonic have long monopolized and competed in the market of high-frequency high-speed copper clad laminate.

 

The production of traditional CCL in China is surplus, and the production capacity of high-frequency and high-speed CCL is insufficient. Since 2016, the import volume of China's copper clad laminates has been declining, while the import amount has increased in reverse, which shows that the supply of domestic high value-added copper clad laminates cannot meet the demand of end products. However, after the ZTE incident, Huawei actively reduced the purchase of high-frequency materials from Rogers in order to reduce its dependence on American suppliers, giving Huazheng new materials, Sino British technology and other manufacturers able to produce the corresponding Rogers domestic alternative space.
5g drives the rapid growth of high-frequency and high-speed copper clad laminates. Three characteristics of 5g construction:

1. 1. Millimeter wave;
2. 2.Massivemimo technology;
3. 3.The construction of micro stations will increase the demand release of high-frequency and high-speed CCL.

 

Among them, millimeter wave (30-300ghz) determines that the base material of copper clad plate must be high frequency copper clad plate to meet the frequency band requirements, millimeter wave needs more macro base stations, thus increasing the demand of high frequency and high-speed copper clad plate; the introduction of massivemimo technology means that antenna vibrator and feed network system will use more high frequency copper clad plate. Among them, the number of side antenna units will reach 32 / 64 / 128 / 256 or more, which will stimulate the accelerated release of high-frequency CCL demand; however, in order to solve the lack of signal coverage of 5g core, a large number of micro stations will be added, which are different from the traditional Hongji station, but also stimulate the overall demand of high-frequency and high-speed CCL in all directions.

 

Space measurement of high-frequency and high-speed copper clad laminate and special copper foil: 5g construction + IDC upgrade + automotive radar, high-frequency and high-speed copper clad laminate needs to be concentrated. According to the construction plan of 5g Hongji station disclosed by various countries, China is expected to build 5.26-7.17 million sets, accounting for about half of the world's construction volume. According to this, we predict that the construction volume of 5g base stations in China is 6 million, and the global construction volume is 12 million. The construction of 5g Hongji station in China may change the demand pattern of high-frequency and high-speed CCL, and China will become the largest market of high-frequency CCL in the world.

 

We expect that 5g construction will bring 18.5 billion yuan market space for high-frequency copper clad laminates and 33.5 billion yuan market space for high-speed copper clad laminates. The special copper foil for high-frequency and high-speed substrate will increase the market space of 16-27 billion yuan under the stimulation of high-frequency and high-speed copper clad plate.

 

The leading enterprises of high-frequency and high-speed copper clad plate have realized the benchmarking of Rogers and are waiting for 5g support to grow again; the production capacity of special copper foil for high-frequency and high-speed substrate is less, which will force the industrial structural adjustment. Shengyi technology, Huazheng new material and Sino British technology all have star products to achieve the standard Rogers. The phase I Project (1 million) of Shengyi technology high frequency copper clad laminate with an annual output of 1.5 million square meters has been completed in trial production in 2018. Its product price is low and its delivery cycle is short, which is significantly better than Rogers.